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Category: China Stocks
Goldman Thinks China Stocks Can Jump Another 25%
Goldman Thinks China Stocks Can Jump Another 25%

China Coal Imports Set To Soar

Mercedes-Benz Leads China's Fastest-Growing Premium Auto Industry

About: Goldman Sachs, Claymore/AlphaShares China SmallCap ETF (NYSE: HAO), WisdomTree Emerging Markets Small-Cap Dividend ETF (NYSE: DGS),
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Goldman Sachs is bullish on Chinese equities, saying they may rise another 25% before the end of this year as the promise of the Yuan appreciating may enable China to bring an end (at least for the near-term) to monetary tightening. China's tighter monetary policy has been a drag on Chinese equities and related exchange traded funds this year as has Beijing's efforts to cool China's scorching real estate market. Now that down payment requirements have been significantly raised, the housing market may start to cool and that could be a help to Chinese stocks.

Certainly an end to the strict monetary policy China has employed recently would be a boon to stocks in China and probably several other markets as well. Goldman said other equity markets in the region may benefit as the Yuan appreciates. For now, the Shanghai Composite Index is still about 9% on the year and is among the world's worst performing benchmark indexes.

Mercedes-Benz Leads China's Fastest-Growing Premium Auto Industry

On the bright side, Goldman did say the ''risk reward pretty good'' while adding Yuan appreciation “is a powerful signal for people to become more constructive on equities.” Goldman also noted the CSI 300 Index, which tracks stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, may fall to 2,900 before reaching 4,000 by the end of this year. The index currently trades around 3,200.
We continue to recommend the Claymore/AlphaShares China SmallCap ETF (NYSE: HAO) as one of gaining China exposure and would be buyers on any dips. Another interesting candidate to play China on a regional basis is the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Small-Cap Dividend ETF (NYSE: DGS), which has exposure to Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand, all of which benefit from China's strong economy.

China's Trade Deficit Hampers Free-Floating Yuan
China's Trade Deficit Hampers Free-Floating Yuan

China's Trade Deficit Hampers Free-Floating Yuan

China’s new trade deficit, booming Chinese economy, Chinese Customs Administration, China’s president, Hu Jintao, Jim Trippon, China's equity markets

About: China’s new trade deficit, booming Chinese economy, Chinese Customs Administration, China’s president, Hu Jintao, Jim Trippon, China's equity markets, Chinese Yuan, China's soaring imports, China's economic expansion
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China posted a March trade deficit of $7.2 billion, news that may downright shocking to some market observers. The deficit represents China's first since 2004 and the news throws a wrench in the plans of Washington's political chattering class to get China to let Yuan appreciate. The pervasive belief has been that the trade surpluses we're so accustomed to seeing from China fuel the argument for Yuan appreciation. Without those surpluses, Beijing isn't about to remove the Yuan from its peg to the U.S. dollar.

Not surprisingly, the March deficit can be attributed in large part to China's soaring imports of raw materials, namely oil. China, the largest auto market in the world and the second-largest energy consumer, said its oil imports soared 29% in March. Given the pace of China's economic expansion, its need for commodities and raw materials isn't likely to abate soon and that may mean a few more months of trade deficits are on the way. That means it is extremely unlikely Beijing lets the Yuan appreciate.

Trade deficits equal lower account surpluses and lower account surpluses diminish the chances of a rising Yuan. For its part, China believes the March deficit is a temporary phenomenon and that talk may assuage those that fret over an artificially lower Yuan. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News say China's economy probably grew by 11.7% in the first quarter, the most rapid clip since September 2007. With growth like that, there remains little incentive for China to let the Yuan rise.

Shanghai Stock Exchange - World’s Hottest Market Scores Another Hit

Shanghai Composite Index - Shanghai Stock Exchange

It’s official. Shanghai has clinched its place as the world’s hottest stock market, jumping an astonishing 100% from its low last year.

The demand for new equities in China was underscored today with another blazing IPO. Sichuan Expressway Co. tripled on its first day of trading as an economic rebound spurs demand for equities. Toll-road operator Sichuan Expressway’s 204 percent gain is China’s biggest debut rally since March 2008. Investors bid for more than 30 times the number of shares offered, according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Initial public offerings have become a rarity on world stock markets since the global financial crisis hit. Successful IPOs are even less common. The exception is China which recently lifted a freeze on IPOs with world-beating results.

China State Construction Engineering Corp. starts trading in Shanghai on July 29 after drawing $270 billion worth of orders. That’s more than the market capitalization of Norway, Russia and at least 48 other nations. The company raised $7.34 billion in what then had been the world’s biggest initial public offering in 16 months.

The State Construction IPO was the fifth since China ended a nine-month moratorium on sales in June. It is the biggest worldwide since Visa raised more than $19 billion back in March of 2008.

Chinese investors are rushing to buy stocks as Beijing’s enormous stimulus plan and unprecedented bank lending continue to revive the world’s third-largest economy. Almost half a million stock accounts were opened in the week to July 17, according to Bloomberg, the largest number of new accounts since the Shanghai market was hit by the world financial crisis a year and a half ago. The Shanghai Composite index, which doubled in 2006 and 2007, remains 2,657.4 points below its peak of October 2007.
Although foreigners cannot buy shares in Shanghai directly they can participate in the Chinese stock boom through various mutual funds, but we at the China Stock Digest continue to warn against doing so. For instance, Sichuan Expressway surged in Shanghai to close, more than three times the price of its Hong Kong-listed stock.

Gains on the Shanghai Composite Index have made Chinese stocks the most expensive based on PE multiples since January 2008, according to Bloomberg data. Shares in the index now trade at 37.1 times earnings, triple November’s low. The IPO values State Construction rose to 51.3 times earnings.

These valuations are dangerously high and the Shanghai Index continues to hit new post-crisis highs almost daily. Clearly state stimulus funding and a flood of bank lending have sparked something of an investor frenzy in Shanghai. To old China hands, the stock market is starting to feel alarmingly like the bubble conditions which preceded the Shanghai bust of 2007-2008.

We feel there is no prudent reason to get involved in a potential bubble in Shanghai when Chinese equities are available at a fraction of the price in Hong Kong and New York.

The China Stock Digest model profile is now fully invested in what we consider the best growth companies available to western investors. Subscribers are reporting profits well above domestic indexes without the needless risk of using various funds to participate directly in Shanghai’s world-beating boom.

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